Jewish World Review /April 27, 1999 / 11 Iyar, 5759
May Day
THE LONGEST GUESSING GAME in which everyone knew the outcome is
about to end.
If things go as planned in Gaza City today,
Yasser Arafat will climb back down from that limb he's been standing on and
threatening to unilaterally declare statehood on May 4.
He just finished his global "Help save me from myself" tour,
consulting with friendly European, Asian, African and Arab leaders. He
encountered no opposition to Palestinian statehood, only to his timing.
The Russians and Chinese, among the PLO's most enduring allies,
told him to keep negotiating with Israel. So did Jordan, Egypt and even
Libya. The most welcome words came from the Europeans, who said that if
Israel doesn't agree within a year, they'd be prepared to accept whatever
Arafat decides and their action "is not subject to any veto" by Israel.
Arafat knew the result of his world tour in advance, but the trip
paid off with hearty endorsements and promises of future support from a
number of nations.
"Arafat has worked this issue very, very well, and we have not,"
conceded a senior Israeli official. "He usually saves Israel by his
outrageous acts or statements, but this time he's playing very smart. He's
consulting everyone. He doesn't care what they say, and he'll do whatever
he pleases, but he knows everyone likes to be consulted and it looks good."
Only in Washington did he fail to get what he wanted. President
Clinton refused to set a deadline, offering instead to push for resuming
negotiations on an intensive and accelerated basis right after the Israeli
elections. Arafat sent his top aides to Washington this week for one more
try. He wants the United States to say it supports eventual statehood if he
delays his announcement beyond May 4. He won't get it, sources say.
The Administration is convinced a unilateral declaration of
independence (UDI), especially if it comes before the Israeli elections,
will kill the peace process and ignite a new and potentially more violent
conflict than any past clashes between Israel and the Palestinians.
Statehood is something that must be negotiated, not unilaterally declared,
Clinton told Arafat.
Members of Congress also made their objections to statehood clear,
with overwhelming majority votes, and they hold life and death power over
funding Arafat desperately needs, starting with the $400 million Clinton
promised for implementation of the Wye Accords.
U.S. officials are caught between two leaders who are not really
serious about making peace with each other. They worry that Arafat would
see a deadline as an incentive to stall, but also that Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, if reelected, would treat the absence of a date certain
as an invitation to freeze the peace process permanently.
The Administration's immediate goal is to hold things together and
hope that Israel will soon have a new government and negotiations can
resume. Arafat picked May 4 because that's the date the Oslo interim period
was scheduled to be completed; the United States and Israel insist nothing
in Oslo gives Arafat the right to declare statehood on that date, nor does
the peace process end.
"We don't want to get into a legal debate on what happens after May
4," said a U.S. official. It doesn't help. We feel both sides made
obligations to each other and should keep the negotiations going. It's in
Israel's interest because it holds the Palestinians to security
cooperation."
Throughout his globetrotting on his private jet, Arafat was
cautioned to wait at least until after the Israeli elections (the first
round in May 17 and the runoff is June 1) lest the issue affect the Israeli
vote more than it already has.
Were it not for those elections, Arafat's threat would have been a
credible tactic in light of the stalled peace process, according to Prof.
Shibley Telhami, who holds the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development
at the University of Maryland.
"Palestinians view (UDI) not as an end in itself that will settle
issues with Israel but rather as a step that will improve their posture in
the final status negotiations," he said. "If you see UDI not as an attempt
to end the conflict unilaterally but as a measure to improve the
negotiating posture of the Palestinians, then it doesn't seem as crazy as
it may at first."
Arafat was disappointed with Clinton's response, but he doesn't
need American support to declare statehood. At the same time, he cannot
afford active American opposition, such as using the veto at the United
Nations, Telhami explained.
A UDI is risky because it is bound to provoke a "dramatic Israeli
reaction," he added, but at the same time the announcement would enhance
Arafat's political leverage because the reference point would become the
territory he claims. But in the end, the two sides will still have to
negotiate borders and terms.
Arafat has said the 125-member Palestinian Central Council will
decide next week whether to declare statehood on May 4. His aides have been
variously predicting it will be right after the Israeli elections,
"definitely in 1999," on January 1, 2000, to begin the new millennium and
the new state, "when the Pope comes" or "about a year from now."
Palestinians speak with many voices, but only one counts;
unfortunately, Arafat's pronouncements change from minute to minute, and
it's hard to tell which to believe.
Along the way, Arafat raised expectations on the Palestinian street
to a very high level and cannot easily back off. He will have to come up
with a satisfactory explanation if May 4 comes and goes without some high
diplomatic drama to avoid weakening his own stature.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, smelling a hot button
election issue, has threatened to retaliate, starting with annexing
remaining portions of the West Bank and Gaza if Arafat declares sovereignty
over his areas.
That stratagem was dealt a serious blow last week, however, when
the legal advisor to the Israeli foreign ministry said annexation would
probably violate international law. The confidential report, which was
promptly leaked, said the move would raise "serious doubts concerning [its]
legality" and would ignite "violent confrontation with the Palestinians and
international condemnation."
The Palestinian leader also got some other good news from Israel
last week. The Peace Index, a monthly survey by the Tami Steinmetz Center
for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, showed more than two out of
three Israelis believe there eventually will be a Palestinian state, and
56% feel the Palestinian demand for statehood is justified and Israel can
afford to accept it.
Arafat won't be declaring statehood next month, but when he does it
won't be like the first time he tried it, in 1988, when it went virtually
unnoticed. This time he has a place to plant his flag and a lot of
countries to salute
By Douglas M. Bloomfield
JWR contributor and Middle East affairs expert Douglas M. Bloomfield heads the suburban D. C. firm Bloomfield Associates, Inc.