Small World

Jewish World Review /April 27, 1999 / 11 Iyar, 5759

May Day

By Douglas M. Bloomfield

THE LONGEST GUESSING GAME in which everyone knew the outcome is about to end.

If things go as planned in Gaza City today, Yasser Arafat will climb back down from that limb he's been standing on and threatening to unilaterally declare statehood on May 4.

He just finished his global "Help save me from myself" tour, consulting with friendly European, Asian, African and Arab leaders. He encountered no opposition to Palestinian statehood, only to his timing.

Econophone The Russians and Chinese, among the PLO's most enduring allies, told him to keep negotiating with Israel. So did Jordan, Egypt and even Libya. The most welcome words came from the Europeans, who said that if Israel doesn't agree within a year, they'd be prepared to accept whatever Arafat decides and their action "is not subject to any veto" by Israel.

Arafat knew the result of his world tour in advance, but the trip paid off with hearty endorsements and promises of future support from a number of nations.

"Arafat has worked this issue very, very well, and we have not," conceded a senior Israeli official. "He usually saves Israel by his outrageous acts or statements, but this time he's playing very smart. He's consulting everyone. He doesn't care what they say, and he'll do whatever he pleases, but he knows everyone likes to be consulted and it looks good."

Only in Washington did he fail to get what he wanted. President Clinton refused to set a deadline, offering instead to push for resuming negotiations on an intensive and accelerated basis right after the Israeli elections. Arafat sent his top aides to Washington this week for one more try. He wants the United States to say it supports eventual statehood if he delays his announcement beyond May 4. He won't get it, sources say.

The Administration is convinced a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), especially if it comes before the Israeli elections, will kill the peace process and ignite a new and potentially more violent conflict than any past clashes between Israel and the Palestinians. Statehood is something that must be negotiated, not unilaterally declared, Clinton told Arafat.

Members of Congress also made their objections to statehood clear, with overwhelming majority votes, and they hold life and death power over funding Arafat desperately needs, starting with the $400 million Clinton promised for implementation of the Wye Accords.

U.S. officials are caught between two leaders who are not really serious about making peace with each other. They worry that Arafat would see a deadline as an incentive to stall, but also that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if reelected, would treat the absence of a date certain as an invitation to freeze the peace process permanently.

The Administration's immediate goal is to hold things together and hope that Israel will soon have a new government and negotiations can resume. Arafat picked May 4 because that's the date the Oslo interim period was scheduled to be completed; the United States and Israel insist nothing in Oslo gives Arafat the right to declare statehood on that date, nor does the peace process end.

"We don't want to get into a legal debate on what happens after May 4," said a U.S. official. It doesn't help. We feel both sides made obligations to each other and should keep the negotiations going. It's in Israel's interest because it holds the Palestinians to security cooperation."

Throughout his globetrotting on his private jet, Arafat was cautioned to wait at least until after the Israeli elections (the first round in May 17 and the runoff is June 1) lest the issue affect the Israeli vote more than it already has.

Were it not for those elections, Arafat's threat would have been a credible tactic in light of the stalled peace process, according to Prof. Shibley Telhami, who holds the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland.

"Palestinians view (UDI) not as an end in itself that will settle issues with Israel but rather as a step that will improve their posture in the final status negotiations," he said. "If you see UDI not as an attempt to end the conflict unilaterally but as a measure to improve the negotiating posture of the Palestinians, then it doesn't seem as crazy as it may at first."

Arafat was disappointed with Clinton's response, but he doesn't need American support to declare statehood. At the same time, he cannot afford active American opposition, such as using the veto at the United Nations, Telhami explained.

A UDI is risky because it is bound to provoke a "dramatic Israeli reaction," he added, but at the same time the announcement would enhance Arafat's political leverage because the reference point would become the territory he claims. But in the end, the two sides will still have to negotiate borders and terms.

Arafat has said the 125-member Palestinian Central Council will decide next week whether to declare statehood on May 4. His aides have been variously predicting it will be right after the Israeli elections, "definitely in 1999," on January 1, 2000, to begin the new millennium and the new state, "when the Pope comes" or "about a year from now."

Palestinians speak with many voices, but only one counts; unfortunately, Arafat's pronouncements change from minute to minute, and it's hard to tell which to believe.

Along the way, Arafat raised expectations on the Palestinian street to a very high level and cannot easily back off. He will have to come up with a satisfactory explanation if May 4 comes and goes without some high diplomatic drama to avoid weakening his own stature.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, smelling a hot button election issue, has threatened to retaliate, starting with annexing remaining portions of the West Bank and Gaza if Arafat declares sovereignty over his areas.

That stratagem was dealt a serious blow last week, however, when the legal advisor to the Israeli foreign ministry said annexation would probably violate international law. The confidential report, which was promptly leaked, said the move would raise "serious doubts concerning [its] legality" and would ignite "violent confrontation with the Palestinians and international condemnation."

The Palestinian leader also got some other good news from Israel last week. The Peace Index, a monthly survey by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, showed more than two out of three Israelis believe there eventually will be a Palestinian state, and 56% feel the Palestinian demand for statehood is justified and Israel can afford to accept it.

Arafat won't be declaring statehood next month, but when he does it won't be like the first time he tried it, in 1988, when it went virtually unnoticed. This time he has a place to plant his flag and a lot of countries to salute it.


JWR contributor and Middle East affairs expert Douglas M. Bloomfield heads the suburban D. C. firm Bloomfield Associates, Inc.

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©1999, Douglas M. Bloomfield