May 13, 2013 Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: Why the giving of the document that would permanently change the world could only be done in desolation David G. Savage: Church-state, literally? Supreme Court weighing public school graduation in a church Emily Alpert: Recession dragged down birth rates for less-educated women Morgan Housel: The deep downside of home ownership Peter Teffer: Will Dutch police soon be stalking cybercriminals on your computer? Heidi McIndoo, M.S., R.D.: Meatless 'meat' can have its own set of problems The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Celebrate! This must-try appetizer is delicate yet has depth of flavor: Corn-Leek Cakes with Caviar, Smoked Salmon and Creme Fraiche May 10, 2013 Rabbi Berel Wein: Be all that you should be Caroline B. Glick: The dirty little secret about Israel's Arabs Mona Charen: Hawking's Moral Calculus: The man and the movement he embraces Morgan Housel: The biggest retirement myth ever told Sandi Doughton: Eyes may provide new insight into brain problems Jewz in the Newz by Nate Bloom : The Great Gatsby's Jewish Ties; Jews in the "Time 100 list" List; People's Most Beautiful Women The Kosher Gourmet by Linda Gassenheimer: A sweet-hot meal: Pear salsa spices up salmon May 8, 2013 Peter Ford: Why China is welcoming both Israel's Netanyahu and Palestinians' Abbas Warren Richey: Obama administration quietly backs out of appeal over new contraceptive mandate Fred Weir: At Kerry-Putin meeting, US-Russia relations thaw --- a tad Amanda Paulson: Study reveals sad truths about community colleges 'Garbage man' in cells could extend life Harvard Health Letters: Evidence weak that zinc, echinacea are beneficial The Kosher Gourmet by Leela Cyd Ross : Almost too pretty to eat, this colorful salad with Sicilian inspiration will tickle the taste buds and delight your visual sensibility May 6, 2013 Edmund Sanders and Patrick J. McDonnell: Think Israel's objective in Syria is to weaken Assad or embolden the rebels? Think again Brian Bennett: Israeli airstrikes may show weakness in Syrian defense Michael Ollove: Millions of ex-felons, parolees and those on probation are about to be entitled to tax-payer paid health coverage Karen Kaplan: Most men can skip PSA test for prostate cancer, urologists say Kimberly Lankford: How to track down a lost life insurance policy Dream of Mars exploration achievable, experts say The Kosher Gourmet by Susan M. Selasky: EGGPLANT WRAPS are an easy, sumptuous and scrumptious meal May 3, 2013 Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: Human Courage and the Unavoidable, Disturbing Text Steven Emerson: Attorney General Fights CAIR in Court, Lauds it in Public Mediterranean diet helps beat dementia: study Harvard Health Letters: When to be screened for a hearing problem Jewz in the Newz by Nate Bloom : Iron Man's Jewish Connections; Marc Maron's New TV Show; Martin Landau Grows Up with Israel; Shalom, Allan Arbus The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: A sweet surprise for Mother's Day dessert May 1, 2013 Jonathan Rosenblum: An Improbable Journey to Orthodoxy Jonathan Tobin: Blame Obama, Not Israel for Syria Push Kids, kittens the Same? With employee perks at struggling Internet pioneer Yahoo! it's hard to tell Halena M. 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Twerski: The world is a mirror Caroline B. Glick: Time to confront Obama Clifford D. May: Defense in the Age of Jihadist Terrorism Kimberly Lankford: New strategies ease pain of paying for long-term care insurance Howard LeWine, M.D.: Ask the Harvard Experts: Too much ibuprofen? Sharon Palmer, R.D.: How to feel your best -- with plenty of energy, a healthy weight and optimal mental and physical function -- without driving yourself batty Jewz in the Newz by Nate Bloom: Jewish Major Leaguers, 2013; New Movies and Comedy Show; Shalom, 'Lumpy' (Leave it to Beaver) The Kosher Gourmet by Emily Ho : A bright and cheerful salad to herald the warmer months ahead April 24, 2013 Steven Emerson: Boston Bomber Exposes Islamist Secret Top Muslim cleric boycotts inter-faith dialogue conference attended by 'Jews' Morgan Housel Admit it: No one has any idea what's going on Harvard Health Letters: Can you get headaches from headache medication? 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Seek a second opinion The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Corn and Curry Add Zing to Chilled Soup April 15, 2013 Rabbi Yonason Goldson: The Death of Education? Kristen Chick: Egyptian Christians respond with harsh words to attack -- rocks, Molotov cocktails, and gunfire -- against main cathedral Marcy Darnovsky and Karuna Jaggar: High Court to decide if you should own your DNA Howard LaFranchi: US bracing for more Russian blowback after taking action against 18 more human rights violators Kristin Ohlson : The loneliest fight The Kosher Gourmet by Dana Velden: A tasty, rich dish that hints at spring's arrival while still anchored in a favorite winter staple April 12, 2013 Rabbi Dr. Tzvi Hersh Weinreb: The Inspired Loner Caroline B. Glick : Must we continue to be enablers of our own destruction? Mark Clayton: New cybersecurity bill: Privacy threat or crucial band-aid? Morgan Housel: Twitter: The carnival barker of investing Harvard Health Letters.: Dietary supplements: Do they help or hurt? Jewz in the Newz by Nate Bloom: Jackie Robinson's Friend, Hank Greenberg; CNN's Jake Tapper; Texas County in the News is named for 19thC. Jewish soldier and Congressman The Kosher Gourmet by Susan Russo: FRUITY QUINOA STUFFED PEPPERS: A flavorful, colorful and edible vessel of delicately fluffy, mildly nutty filling combined with chewy apricots, tangy cherries, and crunchy pistachios April 10, 2013 Edmund Sanders: Kerry leaves Israel with hopes, but few results Nicholas Blanford: Iran's 'axis of resistance' loses its Palestinian arm to Syrian war Peter Grier: North Korean missiles: Could US shoot them down? Morgan Housel: Warning: Don't waste your capital being fooled by profit prophets Donald Hensrud, M.D.: Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: Take vitamin supplements with caution --- even approved, they may actually do damage Eryn Brown: 74 DNA discoveries move cure closer for three cancers Mark Guarino: Google Glass already has some lawmakers on high alert The Kosher Gourmet by Dana Velden: A soup to feed every guest, no matter how finicky April 8, 2013 Jonathan Tobin: What Part of No Preconditions Do American Jews Not Get? Christa Case Bryant: No Place on Earth Fred Weir: Is Putin finally trading his own party for a new power base? Hara Estroff Marano: The Spice of Life P.J. Skerrett, M.D.: Harvard Health Letters: Generic drugs: Don't ask, just tell David Cook : Husband-hunting advice from Princeton alum triggers outrage, humor The Kosher Gourmet by James T. Farmer III : A simple, rustic white pizza: Good ingredients, fresh herbs, and an infused olive layered upon a crispy crust hits the spot

Jewish World Review April 18, 2012/ 26 Nissan, 5772 What Santorum Did Wrong . . . And Right By Dick Morris http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | With most current presidential polls of likely voters showing 9 percent to 10 percent undecided, the question of where the undecided votes go becomes of paramount importance. To answer this question, I compared the final Gallup polls with the actual results in every race in which an incumbent president was opposing an insurgent since 1964. This included the Johnson-Goldwater race of 1964, the Nixon-McGovern race of 1972, the Carter-Ford race of 1976, the Reagan-Carter-Anderson race of 1980, the Reagan-Mondale race of 1984, the Clinton-Bush-Perot race of 1992, the Clinton-Dole race of 1996 and the Bush-Kerry race of 2004. In these races, the undecided vote went heavily for the insurgent and the incumbent lost vote share between the final poll and the election, even when the incumbent was winning the contest easily overall. Six of eight presidents seeking reelection performed worse than the final Gallup poll predicted, while one finished the same (Reagan in 1984) and one gained votes (Bush in 2004). Seven of the nine insurgent candidates did better than the final Gallup survey predicted. • In 1964, Johnson lost 3 points to Goldwater at the end. • In 1972, Nixon lost 1 point to a third-party candidate. • In 1976, there was a 4-point swing to Carter. • In 1980, there was a 3-point swing to Reagan or Anderson. • In 1984, there was no change between the final poll and the results. • In 1992, there was a 1-point shift away from Bush. In that contest, there was also a 5-point swing away from Clinton to Perot at the end. • In 1996, there was a 5-point swing away from Clinton and to Dole or Perot. • Only Bush in 2004 ran better in the result than in the final poll, by 2 points. In other words, of the total of 19 points that shifted between the final poll and the election results, 17 points or 89 percent went to the challenger. The implications of these findings are that the current polls, while seemingly close, portend a strong Republican victory. The Real Clear Politics average of the past eight presidential horse race polls shows Obama with a 47-44 lead over Romney. But among likely voters, in the Rasmussen survey (all others were of either registered voters or adults), the president was running behind Romney by 48-44. But given the historical fact that the final results are almost always worse for the president and almost never better, we really need to focus on the Obama vote share rather than his lead or lack of one against Romney. If Obama is, indeed, getting 44 percent of the vote, he is likely facing, at least, an 11-point loss. If he is getting 47 percent of the vote, he is looking, at least, at a 6-point defeat. (Given the fact that six of the eight incumbent presidents not only lost the undecided, but finished lower than the pre-election survey predicted, it would be more likely that Obama's margin of defeat would be greater than even these numbers suggest.) There are other indications of a Republican landslide in the offing. Party identification has moved a net of eight points toward the GOP since the last election. In Senate races, there are currently eight Democratic-held seats where Republicans are now leading either the Democratic incumbent or the Democratic candidate for the open seat. The predictions of a close election are all based on polling of registered voters — not likely voters — and fail to account for the shift in votes against the incumbent that has been the norm of the past presidential contests. =<< Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BUY THE BOOK Click HERE to purchase it at a 46% discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Comment by clicking here. Dick Morris Archives © 2012, Dick Morris

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