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December 2, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Defending the Right to a Jewish State

Heather Hale: Compliment your kids without giving them big heads

Megan Shauri: 10 ways you are ruining your own happiness

Carolyn Bigda: 8 Best Dividend Stocks for 2015

Kiplinger's Personal Finance editors: 7 Things You Didn't Know About Paying Off Student Loans

Samantha Olson: The Crucial Mistake 55% Of Parents Are Making At Their Baby's Bedtime

Densie Well, Ph.D., R.D. Open your eyes to yellow vegetables

The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon With its colorful cache of purples and oranges and reds, COLLARD GREEN SLAW is a marvelous mood booster --- not to mention just downright delish
April 18, 2014

Rabbi Yonason Goldson: Clarifying one of the greatest philosophical conundrums in theology

Caroline B. Glick: The disappearance of US will

Megan Wallgren: 10 things I've learned from my teenagers

Lizette Borreli: Green Tea Boosts Brain Power, May Help Treat Dementia

John Ericson: Trying hard to be 'positive' but never succeeding? Blame Your Brain

The Kosher Gourmet by Julie Rothman Almondy, flourless torta del re (Italian king's cake), has royal roots, is simple to make, . . . but devour it because it's simply delicious

April 14, 2014

Rabbi Dr Naftali Brawer: Passover frees us from the tyranny of time

Greg Crosby: Passing Over Religion

Eric Schulzke: First degree: How America really recovered from a murder epidemic

Georgia Lee: When love is not enough: Teaching your kids about the realities of adult relationships

Cameron Huddleston: Freebies for Your Lawn and Garden

Gordon Pape: How you can tell if your financial adviser is setting you up for potential ruin

Dana Dovey: Up to 500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver disease. New Treatment Has Over 90% Success Rate

Justin Caba: Eating Watermelon Can Help Control High Blood Pressure

The Kosher Gourmet by Joshua E. London and Lou Marmon Don't dare pass over these Pesach picks for Manischewitz!

April 11, 2014

Rabbi Hillel Goldberg: Silence is much more than golden

Caroline B. Glick: Forgetting freedom at Passover

Susan Swann: How to value a child for who he is, not just what he does

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Financial Tasks You Should Tackle Right Now

Sandra Block and Lisa Gerstner: How to Profit From Your Passion

Susan Scutti: A Simple Blood Test Might Soon Diagnose Cancer

Chris Weller: Have A Slow Metabolism? Let Science Speed It Up For You

The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington Whitefish Terrine: A French take on gefilte fish

April 9, 2014

Jonathan Tobin: Why Did Kerry Lie About Israeli Blame?

Samuel G. Freedman: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Jessica Ivins: A resolution 70 years later for a father's unsettling legacy of ashes from Dachau

Kim Giles: Asking for help is not weakness

Kathy Kristof and Barbara Hoch Marcus: 7 Great Growth Israeli Stocks

Matthew Mientka: How Beans, Peas, And Chickpeas Cleanse Bad Cholesterol and Lowers Risk of Heart Disease

Sabrina Bachai: 5 At-Home Treatments For Headaches

The Kosher Gourmet by Daniel Neman Have yourself a matzo ball: The secrets bubby never told you and recipes she could have never imagined

April 8, 2014

Lori Nawyn: At Your Wit's End and Back: Finding Peace

Susan B. Garland and Rachel L. Sheedy: Strategies Married Couples Can Use to Boost Benefits

David Muhlbaum: Smart Tax Deductions Non-Itemizers Can Claim

Jill Weisenberger, M.S., R.D.N., C.D.E : Before You Lose Your Mental Edge

Dana Dovey: Coffee Drinkers Rejoice! Your Cup Of Joe Can Prevent Death From Liver Disease

Chris Weller: Electric 'Thinking Cap' Puts Your Brain Power Into High Gear

The Kosher Gourmet by Marlene Parrish A gift of hazelnuts keeps giving --- for a variety of nutty recipes: Entree, side, soup, dessert

April 4, 2014

Rabbi David Gutterman: The Word for Nothing Means Everything

Charles Krauthammer: Kerry's folly, Chapter 3

Amy Peterson: A life of love: How to build lasting relationships with your children

John Ericson: Older Women: Save Your Heart, Prevent Stroke Don't Drink Diet

John Ericson: Why 50 million Americans will still have spring allergies after taking meds

Cameron Huddleston: Best and Worst Buys of April 2014

Stacy Rapacon: Great Mutual Funds for Young Investors

Sarah Boesveld: Teacher keeps promise to mail thousands of former students letters written by their past selves

The Kosher Gourmet by Sharon Thompson Anyone can make a salad, you say. But can they make a great salad? (SECRETS, TESTED TECHNIQUES + 4 RECIPES, INCLUDING DRESSINGS)

April 2, 2014

Paul Greenberg: Death and joy in the spring

Dan Barry: Should South Carolina Jews be forced to maintain this chimney built by Germans serving the Nazis?

Mayra Bitsko: Save me! An alien took over my child's personality

Frank Clayton: Get happy: 20 scientifically proven happiness activities

Susan Scutti: It's Genetic! Obesity and the 'Carb Breakdown' Gene

Lecia Bushak: Why Hand Sanitizer May Actually Harm Your Health

Stacy Rapacon: Great Funds You Can Own for $500 or Less

Cameron Huddleston: 7 Ways to Save on Home Decor

The Kosher Gourmet by Steve Petusevsky Exploring ingredients as edible-stuffed containers (TWO RECIPES + TIPS & TECHINQUES)

Jewish World Review April 4, 2012/ 12 Nissan, 5772

Obama's enthusiasm gap

By Dick Morris




http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | The conventional wisdom in Washington is even more demented than usual in its confident prediction of an Obama victory. The fact is that a careful analysis of the polling suggests that he faces the likelihood that his political base will underperform in the 2012 election, voting with their feet by staying home.

An enthusiasm gap is hurting Obama's candidacy and his reelection chances.

Of the last 12 Real Clear Politics polls between Obama and Romney, going back to March 11, 10 tested their relative strength among registered voters, the average of these 10 polls gave Obama a 49-42 advantage, a comfortable margin of victory of 7 points. But the two polls during this period that tested likely voters — one by Bloomberg on March 11 and one by Rasmussen on April 1 (but not an April Fools' joke) both showed a tied race. Bloomberg had it 45-45, while Rasmussen showed it deadlocked at 47 apiece.

All Democrats do better than Republicans when adults or registered voters are sampled, as opposed to likely voters. Those who tend not to vote are usually more downscale in income and education and more likely to vote Democratic. But the difference between registered voters and likely voters is rarely so large.

In the Clinton campaign of 1996, for example, the gap was rarely more than a few points.

The huge difference facing Obama based on whether the sample is of registered or likely voters — a 7-point victory in one and a tied race in the other — underscores the president's biggest problem: motivating his supporters to get out and vote.

Essentially, Obama's 2008 victory was based on a trio of high turnouts among African-Americans, Latinos and young people. While his ratings among blacks are still very high and he is likely to continue to get almost all of their votes, it is an open question whether he will be able to increase their turnout as dramatically as he did last time. In the election of 2008, blacks cast 14 percent of the vote, far above their usual 11 percent.

Among Hispanics, Obama is in serious trouble. While he won two-thirds of their votes in '08, Rasmussen now shows just 41 percent approving of his job as president. And among voters under 30, Obama is also unlikely to be able to replicate his '08 showing. Rasmussen has him drawing only 54 percent approval — with only 22 percent strongly approving of his performance as president, far below the 67 percent vote share he drew among the young in '08.

Obama clearly recognizes his situation and is featuring policies meant to appease and energize his sagging base. From his intervention in the Florida shooting of an unarmed teenager to his new immigration policies and his focus on student loans, the president is trying to bridge the enthusiasm gap that threatens to doom his candidacy.

Conversely, the evidence suggests that white middle-aged and elderly voters are champing at the bit to vote to oust Obama from the Oval Office before he can inflict more damage on this country.

And all of these stats beg the fundamental question of where the undecided votes will go. A careful analysis of all the undecided votes in all the presidential elections since 1960 in which an incumbent was seeking a second term shows that 80 percent of those who were undecided in the final Gallup poll voted for the challenger even when he was losing the contest badly. While Goldwater, McGovern, Mondale, Dole and Kerry were badly defeated in their challenges to Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Bush, they all drew the vast bulk of the undecided vote. So when Obama gets 45 percent of the likely voters, the evidence would suggest that he is headed for a sizable defeat.

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