May 22, 2012 David S. Cloud and Kathleen Hennessey: Obama changes mind on Pakistan invite to NATO summit --- and then gets dissed by country's president US Senate approves new sanctions against Iran ahead of Baghdad talks Warren Richey: Can US group challenge overseas surveillance act? Supreme Court to decide Supreme Court: Twins can't claim dead dad's benefits Thomas M. Anderson: Walking Away From a Mortgage Environmental Nutrition editors: The lowdown on a low-acid diet Pomegranate juice maker used deceptive ads, FTC judge rules Relatives outraged over spoof on Hamas chief's killing The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon: Enjoy a celebration of the most rich and layered flavors: Black bean, sweet potato and quinoa chili May 21, 2012 Mark Clayton: Cybersecurity: How US utilities passed up chance to protect their networks Howard LaFranchi: NATO summit: Who will foot the bill for long-term Afghanistan security? Chris Farrell : Earn Dividends in Emerging Markets with This WisdomTree ETF James K. Glassman: 5 Stock Picks Among Online Retailers Stephen Whiteside, Ph.D. : Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: Social anxiety disorder --- or just shy? Guy Jackson : Victim's father regrets death of Lockerbie bomber The Kosher Gourmet by Mario Batali: Famed chef's veal shoulder farsumagru: A festive meat course for late spring May 18, 2012 Rabbi Berel Wein: Striving: The People of the Book's Book for (All of) the People Caroline B. Glick: Embracing dangerous delusions and not our friends Steven Goldberg: 5 Great Stock Picks and the Exchange-Traded Fund that Owns Them Janet Bodnar: How to Teach Kids to Handle Credit Cards Mary Pickett, M.D.: Ask the Harvard Experts: Don't be forced into gluten-free lifestyle based merely on a doctor's false-positive test The Kosher Gourmet by Carolyn Malcoun: DIY healthy lunchbox treats: HOMEMADE FRUIT BARS for kids and brown-bagging adults alike May 17, 2012 Warren Richey: Teacher fired for being unwed and pregnant can sue religious school, court rules Josh Mitnick: Netanyahu's 'centrist' coalition is already proving it's anything but Steven Goldberg: Earn Dividends in Emerging Markets with This WisdomTree ETF Mary Beth Franklin: Retirement Savings Tips for New Grads Amina Khan: Research links coffee to lower death rates Chelsea Sheasley: Social media: Is it too feminine? The Kosher Gourmet by Faith Duran : Cheesy Potato Breakfast Casserole with Cheddar and Sun-Dried Tomatoes May 16, 2012 Jackson Holahan: The Aleppo Codex Jonathan Tobin : Iran Declares Victory in Nuclear Talks Kiplinger Reports, Summarized Anne Kates Smith: 7 Stocks That Let You Sleep Tight Carmen Terzic, M.D., Ph.D. : Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: A variety of exercises can help improve balance Melissa Healy: National strategy on Alzheimer's disease aims to halt it by 2025 The Kosher Gourmet by Joyce White : GOODNESS GRACIOUS: GREENS! 4 winning recipes that are no longer just for down-home folks (Includes expert tips & techniques) May 15, 2012 Dennis Prager: God and Man at (and for) Liberty Kristen Chick: Obama administration resumes arms sales to Bahrain despite serious unresolved human rights issues. Activists feel abandoned Pat Mertz Esswein: Homes are now affordable again and mortgage rates are low. What you need to know before you buy Kathy Kristof: Our Practical Investor Fights Inflation with These 6 Investments Sue Hubbard, M.D.: The Kid's Doctor: Lactose intolerant young child? Check again Environmental Nutrition Editors: Get the facts on palm sugar sweetening The Kosher Gourmet by Kathy Hunt: Spread a Little Excitement with EXOTIC CONDIMENTS (4 RECIPES) May 14, 2012 Richard Simon: Purple Hearts for domestic terror victims? Nando Pelusi, Ph.D.: The privacy paradox: Surrounded by strangers, we risk isolation, anxiety Chris Farrell: Investing Lessons from the Great Recession Lisa Gerstner: How to Protect Your Identity, Finances If You Lose Your Phone Harvard Health Letters: Heart disease and dementia Tiffany O'Callaghan: New hormone mimics effects of exercise without the sweat The Kosher Gourmet by Megan Gordon: MANGO COCONUT OAT MORNING MUFFINS are a bright but hearty delight May 11, 2012 Rabbi B. Shafier: Why happiness will always be elusive Charles Krauthammer: Echoes of '67: Israel unites Howard LaFranchi: With G8 snub, US-Putin 'reset' off to stumbling start Jeremy J. Siegel: Investors, Relax About Rising Interest Rates Jessica L. Anderson: Get the Best Deal on a Used Car Jett Stone: Forget face-lifts and fake knees. Scientists have seen the fountain of youth --- and it's broccoli The Kosher Gourmet by Chef Mario Batali: The famed chef's vegetable dish that tastes true to the season: FAVAS AND SUGAR SNAP PEAS WITH POTATOES AND TARRAGON May 10, 2012 Clifford D. May: The Real Palestinian Refugee Problem Sergei L. Loiko: Putin sends warning to U.S., NATO in Victory Day speech at Red Square Mary Rourke: How being a 'mentch' got Vidal Sasoon his start and fighting in Israel's War of Independence provided him with confidence and a strong sense of his own identity Harvard Health Letters: Palliative care: Underused therapy yields surprising benefits Jeff Bertolucci: Get Home Phone Service for Less Than $10 a Month Rachel L. Sheedy and Susan B. Garland : Make the Right Moves to Boost Benefits The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom: Gleaming with its golden, crimson, and snowy white hues, this silken smooth and creamy STRAWBERRY ORANGE TRIFLE looks impressive, but is easy to prepare May 9, 2012 John Rosemond: Parents, stop destroying the American male Valerie J. Nelson: Maurice Sendak, author of 'Where the Wild Things Are,' dies at 83 Bob Frick: Angst Over Annuities Sharon Palmer, R.D. How you can reduce your risk -- or delay -- chronic diseases associated with aging Howard LeWine, M.D.: Ask the Harvard Experts: Why did my blood pressure suddenly shoot up? Lisa Gerstner: Lower the Rate on All Your Loans The Kosher Gourmet by Emily Ho : Springtime soba with miso sauce offers a coloful mix of fresh textures and flavors May 8, 2012 Edmund Sanders: Netanyahu suddenly cancels new elections, forms unity government Frank J. Gaffney Jr.: Farewell to European superstate Anne Kates Smith: 4 Stocks That Mimic Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Gaia Vince and Clare Wilson The Rise of Miniature Medical Robots: Fantasy Fast Becoming Reality Paul Takahashi, M.D.: Mayo Clinic Medical Edge: Never suffer night leg cramps Jessica L. Anderson: Extended-Warranty Warning The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Celebrate National Chocolate Chip Day with the Best Cookie Ever (Includes techniques) May 7, 2012 Mark Clayton: Homeland Security warns major cyber attack aimed at gas pipeline industry underway Angus Roxburgh: Putin Decoded: World view of a Russian feeling dissed Kimberly Lankford: Navigate a Course for Long-Term Care Kevin McCormally How to Adjust Your Tax Withholding Celeste Robb-Nicholson, M.D.: Harvard Health Letters: How do you treat a Baker's cyst? Joanne Capano: Healthy Snacks for Children: The Choices May Surprise You The Kosher Gourmet by Penelope Wall: Classic Creamy Spinach Dip with a Fraction of the Calories and Fat May 4, 2012 Rabbi Nathan Lopes Cardozo: Holy 'trivialities' Jonathan Tobin: Bibi v. Barak will be no contest this time around Steven Goldberg: Blue Chip Stocks On Sale Worldwide Art Pine Slow Productivity Growth a Blessing --- For Now Sue Hubbard, M.D. : The Kid's Doctor: Are Kids Too Wired? Kerri-Ann Jennings, M.S., R.D: Foods that are good for your smile Amy Paturel, M.S., M.P.H.: Eating Well: Foods that are good for your smile The Kosher Gourmet by Betty Rosbottom: Strawberry rhubarb parfaits are elegant yet simple to assemble May 3, 2012 Michael Freund: Who's Afraid of the Messiah? Clifford D. May: The Foggiest War Susan B. Garland: Insurance to Cover Old Old Age Steven Goldberg 6 Reasons to Bet on a Big Bull Market Harvard Health Letters: Treating prostate cancer --- no rush to judgment Larry Gordon: Harvard, MIT partner to offer free online courses Naomi Nix : Man gets free trip to Chicago after postcard sent by mother in 1957 finally reaches him The Kosher Gourmet by Diane Rossen Worthington: Intensely Italian vegetable frittata is a seriously simple standby

Jewish World Review March 20, 2008 / 13 Adar II 5768 Five Years Later By George Friedman http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Five years have now passed since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney, in Iraq with Sen. John McCain - the presumptive Republican nominee for president - summarized the five years by saying, "If you reflect back on those five years, it's been a difficult, challenging, but nonetheless successful endeavor. We've come a long way in five years, and it's been well worth the effort." Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Hillary Clinton called the war a failure. It is the role of political leaders to make such declarations, not ours. Nevertheless, after five years, it is a moment to reflect less on where we are and more on where we are going. As we have argued in the past, the actual distinctions between McCain's position at one end (reduce forces in Iraq only as conditions permit) and Barack Obama's position (reduce them over 16 months unless al Qaeda is shown to be in Iraq) are in practice much less distinct than either believes. Rhetoric aside - and this is a political season - there is in fact a general, but hardly universal, belief that goes as follows: The invasion of Iraq probably was a mistake, and certainly its execution was disastrous. But a unilateral and precipitous withdrawal by the United States at this point would not be in anyone's interest. The debate is over whether the invasion was a mistake in the first place, while the divisions over ongoing policy are much less real than apparent. Stratfor tries not to get involved in this sort of debate. Our role is to try to predict what nations and leaders will do, and to explain their reasoning and the forces that impel them to behave as they do. Many times, this analysis gets confused with advocacy. But our goal actually is to try to understand what is happening, why it is happening and what will happen next. We note the consensus. We neither approve nor disapprove of it as a company. As individuals, we all have opinions. Opinions are cheap and everyone gets to have one for free. But we ask that our staff check them - along with their personal ideologies - at the door. Our opinions focus not on what ought to happen, but rather on what we think will happen - and here we are passionate. Public Justifications and Private Motivations We have lived with the Iraq war for more than five years. It was our view in early 2002 that a U.S. invasion of Iraq was inevitable. We did not believe the invasion had anything to do with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) - which with others we believed were under development in Iraq. The motivation for the war, as we wrote, had to do with forcing Saudi Arabia to become more cooperative in the fight against al Qaeda by demonstrating that the United States actually was prepared to go to extreme measures. The United States invaded to change the psychology of the region, which had a low regard for American power. It also invaded to occupy the most strategic country in the Middle East, one that bordered seven other key countries. Our view was that the Bush administration would go to war in Iraq not because it saw it as a great idea, but because its options were to go on the defensive against al Qaeda and wait for the next attack or take the best of a bad lot of offensive actions. The second option consisted of trying to create what we called the "coalition of the coerced," Islamic countries prepared to cooperate in the covert war against al Qaeda. Fighting in Afghanistan was merely a holding action that alone would solve nothing. So lacking good options, the administration chose the best of a bad lot. The administration certainly lied about its reasons for going into Iraq. But then FDR certainly lied about planning for involvement in World War II, John Kennedy lied about whether he had traded missiles in Turkey for missiles in Cuba and so on. Leaders cannot conduct foreign policy without deception, and frequently the people they deceive are their own publics. This is simply the way things are. We believed at the time of the invasion that it might prove to be much more difficult and dangerous than proponents expected. Our concern was not about a guerrilla war. Instead, it was about how Saddam Hussein would make a stand in Baghdad, a city of 5 million, forcing the United States into a Stalingrad-style urban meat grinder. That didn't happen. We underestimated Iraqi thinking. Knowing they could not fight a conventional war against the Americans, they opted instead to decline conventional combat and move to guerrilla warfare instead. We did not expect that. A Bigger Challenge Than Expected That this was planned is obvious to us. On April 13, 2003, we noted what appeared to be an organized resistance group carrying out bombings. Organizing such attacks so quickly indicated to us that the operations were planned. Explosives and weapons had been hidden, command and control established, attacks and publicity coordinated. These things don't just happen. Soon after the war, we recognized that the Sunnis in fact had planned a protracted war - just not a conventional one. Our focus then turned to Washington. Washington had come into the war with a clear expectation that the destruction of the Iraqi army would give the United States a clean slate on which to redraw Iraqi society. Before the war was fought, comparisons were being drawn with the occupation of Japan. The beginnings of the guerrilla operation did not fit into these expectations, so U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld dismissed the guerrillas as merely the remnants of the Iraqi army - criminals and "dead-enders" - in their last throes. We noted the gap between Washington's perception of Iraq and what we thought was actually going on. A perfect storm arose in this gulf. First, no WMD were found. We were as surprised by this as anybody. But for us, this was an intellectual exercise; for the administration, it meant the justification for the war - albeit not the real motive - was very publicly negated. Then, resistance in Iraq to the United States increased after the U.S. president declared final victory. And finally, attempts at redrawing Iraqi society as a symbol of American power in the Islamic world came apart, a combination of the guerrilla war and lack of preparation plus purging the Baathists. In sum, reshaping a society proved more daunting than expected just as the administration's credibility cracked over the WMD issue. A More Complex Game By 2004, the United States had entered a new phase. Rather than simply allowing the Shia to create a national government, the United States began playing a complex and not always clear game of trying to bring the Sunnis into the political process while simultaneously waging war against them. The Iranians used their influence among the Shia to further destabilize the U.S. position. Having encouraged the United States to depose its enemy, Saddam Hussein, Tehran now wanted Washington to leave and allow Iran to dominate Iraq. The United States couldn't leave Iraq but had no strategy for staying. Stratfor's view from 2004 was that the military option in Iraq had failed. The United States did not have the force to impose its will on the various parties in Iraq. The only solution was a political accommodation with Iran. We noted a range of conversations with Iran, but also noted that the Iranians were not convinced that they had to deal with the Americans. Given the military circumstance, the Americans would leave anyway and Iran would inherit Iraq. Stratfor became more and more pessimistic about the American position in 2006, believing that no military solution was possible, and that a political solution - particularly following the Democratic victory in 2006 congressional elections - would further convince the Iranians to be intransigent. The deal that we had seen emerging over the summer of 2006 after the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of al Qaeda in Iraq, was collapsing. The Surge We were taken by surprise by U.S. President George W. Bush's response to the elections. Rather than beginning a withdrawal, he initiated the surge. While the number of troops committed to Iraq was relatively small, and its military impact minimal, the psychological shock was enormous. The Iranian assumption about the withdrawal of U.S. forces collapsed, forcing Tehran to reconsider its position. An essential part of the surge - not fully visible at the beginning - was that it was more a political plan than a military one. While increased operations took place, the Americans reached out to the Sunni leadership, splitting them off from foreign jihadists and strengthening them against the Shia. Coupled with increasingly bellicose threats against Iran, this created a sense of increasing concern in Tehran. The Iranians responded by taking Muqtada al-Sadr to Iran and fragmenting his army. This led to a dramatic decline in the civil war between Shia and Sunni and in turn led to the current decline in violence. The war - or at least Stratfor's view of it - thus went through four phases: Winter 2002-March 2003: The period that began with the run-up to invasion, in which the administration chose the best of a bad set of choices and then became overly optimistic about the war's outcome. April 2003-Summer 2003: The period in which the insurgency developed and the administration failed to respond. Fall 2003-late 2006: The period in which the United States fought a multisided war with insufficient forces and a parallel political process that didn't match the reality on the ground. Late 2006 to the present: The period known as the surge, in which military operations and political processes were aligned, leading to a working alliance with the Sunnis and the fragmentation of the Shia. This period included the Iranians restraining their Shiite supporters and the United States removing the threat of war against Iran through the National Intelligence Estimate. The key moment in the war occurred between May 2003 and July 2003. This consisted of the U.S. failure to recognize that an insurgency in the Sunni community had begun and its delay in developing a rapid and effective response, creating the third phase - namely, the long, grueling period in which combat operations were launched, casualties were incurred and imposed, but the ability to move toward a resolution was completely absent. It is unclear whether a more prompt response by the Bush administration during the second period could have avoided the third period, but the second period certainly was the only point during which the war could have been brought under control. The operation carried out under Gen. David Petraeus, combining military and political processes, has been a surprise, at least to us. Meanwhile, the U.S. rapprochement with the Sunnis that began quietly in Anbar province spiraled into something far more effective than we had imagined. It has been much more successful than we had imagined in part because we did not believe Washington was prepared for such a systematic and complex operation that was primarily political in nature. It is also unclear if the operation will succeed. Its future still depends on the actions of the Iraqi Shia, and these actions in turn depend on Iran. The Endgame We have been focused on the U.S.-Iranian talks for quite awhile. We continue to believe this is a critical piece in any endgame. The United States is now providing an alternative scenario designed to be utterly frightening to the Iranians. They are arming and training the Iranians' mortal enemies: the Sunnis who led the war against Iran from 1980 to 1988. That rearming is getting very serious indeed. Sunni units outside the aegis of the Iraqi military are now some of the most heavily armed Iraqis in Anbar, thanks to the Sunni relationship with U.S. forces there. It should be remembered that the Sunnis ruled Iraq because the Iraqi Shia were fragmented, fighting among themselves and therefore weak. That underlying reality remains true. A cohesive Sunni community armed and backed by the Americans will be a formidable force. That threat is the best way to bring the Iranians to the table. The irony is that the war is now focused on empowering the very people the war was fought against: the Iraqi Sunnis. In a sense, it is at least a partial return to the status quo ante bellum. In that sense, one could argue the war was a massive mistake. At the same time, we constantly return to this question: We know what everyone would not have done in 2003; we are curious about what everyone would have done then. Afghanistan was an illusory option. The real choices were to try to block al Qaeda defensively or to coerce Islamic intelligence services to provide the United States with needed intelligence. By appearing to be a dangerous and uncontrolled power rampaging in the most strategic country in the region, the United States reshaped the political decisions countries like Saudi Arabia were making. This all came at a price that few of us would have imagined five years ago. Cheney is saying it was worth it. Clinton is saying it was not. Stratfor's view is that what happened had to happen given the lack of choices. But Rumsfeld's unwillingness to recognize that a guerrilla war had broken out and provide more and appropriate forces to wage that war did not have to happen. There alone we think history might have changed. Perhaps. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. FRIEDMAN'S LATEST "America's Secret War."   Friedman identifies the United States' most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of September 11 and the Bush administration's motivation for the war in Iraq. Here in eye-opening detail is an insightful picture of today's world that goes far beyond what is reported in the news media. Sales help fund JWR. Comment by clicking here. George Friedman is chairman of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., dubbed by Barron's as "The Shadow CIA," it's one of the world's leading global intelligence firms, providing clients with geopolitical analysis and industry and country forecasts to mitigate risk and identify opportunities. Stratfor's clients include Fortune 500 companies and major governments. Stratfor Archives © 2008, Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

Arnold Ahlert  Mitch Albom  Jay Ambrose  Michael Barone  Barrywood  Lori Borgman  Stratfor Briefing  Mona Charen  Linda Chavez  Richard Z. Chesnoff  Ann Coulter  Greg Crosby  Alan Douglas  Larry Elder  Suzanne Fields  Frank J. Gaffney  Bernie Goldberg  Jonah Goldberg  Julia Gorin  Jonathan Gurwitz  Paul Greenberg  Argus Hamilton  Victor Davis Hanson  Betsy Hart  Ron Hart  Nat Hentoff  Marybeth Hicks  A. Barton Hinkle  David Horowitz  Jeff Jacoby  Renee James  Paul Johnson  Jack Kelly  Ed Koch  Ch. Krauthammer  Michael Ledeen  John Leo  David Limbaugh  Kathryn Lopez  Rich Lowry  Michelle Malkin  Jackie Mason  Ann McFeatters  Dale McFeatters  Dana Milbank  Jeanne Moos  Dick Morris  Jim Mullen  Deroy Murdock  Judge A. Napolitano  Bill O'Reilly  Kathleen Parker  Star Parker  Dennis Prager  Wesley Pruden  Tom Purcell  Sharon Randall  Robert Robb  Cokie & Steve Roberts  Heather Robinson  Pat Sajak  Debra J. Saunders  Martin Schram  Culture Shlock  David Shribman  Roger Simon  Michael Smerconish  Thomas Sowell  Ben Stein  Mark Steyn  John Stossel  Cal Thomas  Dan Thomasson  Bob Tyrrell  Ben Wattenberg  Diana West  Dave Weinbaum  George Will  Walter Williams  Byron York  ZeitGeist  Mort Zuckerman  Robert Arial  Chuck Asay  Baloo  Chip Bok  Dry Bones   Lisa Benson  John Branch  John Cole  J. D. Crowe  John Deering  Brian Duffy  Everything's Relative  Mallard Fillmore  Glenn Foden  Jake Fuller  Bob Gorrel  Walt Handelsman  Joe Heller  David Hitch  Jerry Holbert  David Horsey  Lee Judge  Steve Kelley  Jeff Koterba  Dick Locher  Chan Lowe  Jimmy Margulies  Jack Ohman  Michael Ramirez  Drew Sheneman  Kevin Siers  Jeff Stahler  Scott Stantis  Ed Stein  Danna Summers  John Trever  Gary Varvel  Kirk Walters   Dan Wasserman  Mr. Know-It-All  Ask Doctor K  Richard Lederer  Frugal Living  Tech Maven  On Nutrition  Bookmark These  Bruce Williams