US-China summit vital to Israeli security
By Douglas M. Bloomfield
CHINESE PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN'S recent Washington meetings
with President Clinton were of great importance to Israel, which is
watching closely to see whether he keeps promises made there that are
considered vital to the security of the Jewish state.
The United States and Israel suspect China and Russia, whose
President Boris Yeltsin is here this week, of helping Iran, Syria and
others acquire weapons of mass destruction and the ballistic missiles
that
could be tipped with chemical, biological and nuclear warheads.
Jiang promised Clinton to halt the transfer of nuclear weapons
technology in exchange for an American agreement to sell civilian
nuclear
power equipment to China. The promise comes too late in the case of
Pakistan, which western experts are convinced already has built the
"Islamic bomb," but they don't believe Iran and Syria have reached the
same
level of development, although they don't really know how far those two
regimes have progressed.
China also has agreed to stop the sale of anti-ship cruise
missiles
to Iran, something Washington demanded because of the threat those
missiles
could pose to American ships in the Persian Gulf, but it is not clear
what
agreements were reached on other forms of missile technology, which is
of
understandably great concern to Israel.
During a brief visit to Beijing this summer, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu reported receiving a commitment from Chinese
authorities
to halt nuclear weapons work with Iran, Syria and other enemies of
Israel,
but many Israelis, including well-placed China watchers, are skeptical
about such promises -- particularly considering China's need for hard
currency.
"They will do as they please," said a highly reliable source who
did not wish to be identified. "I expect them to look for ways to
circumvent their promises."
Israel obviously doesn't have the clout here to expect to be
able
to influence Chinese policy, so it must depend on Washington to do the
heavy lifting for Jerusalem.
Clinton publicly warned Jiang against sharing dangerous
technologies with "rogue states and terrorists... seeking to undermine
peace, stability and democracy," particularly in the Middle East. He
said
he wants China to do a better job of observing international norms
regarding chemical and biological weapons technology and missile
systems.
Some Israeli policy makers also are concerned about their own
country's military and defense technology trade with China,fearing that
despite Chinese assurances, some is still finding its way into the wrong
hands.
"Whatever we give them gets to Iran," despite repeated promises
to
the contrary, in the view of a well-placed Israeli source.
Beijing and Jerusalem established formal diplomatic relations in
January 1992 following the Gulf War and the launching of the peace
process
at Madrid the previous year. But military contacts between the two began
a
decade earlier when Israel began selling China gun barrels for its
Soviet-style tanks and providing other services.
It was a lucrative and important, albeit secret, market for
Israel,
which at the time was having trouble finding trading partners and often
found itself drawn to unsavory regimes. At times that put it in conflict
with American policy, and even its own policies.
Israel persisted in arms sales to apartheid South Africa at a
time
when it seriously endangered relations with the United States, and
particularly Israel's power base on Capitol Hill, and to Iran where it
got
involved in the arms-for-hostages fiasco with the Reagan White House.
The most cynical episode, however, had to be in 1981 when the
American Jewish community, with the encouragement of Prime Minister
Menachem Begin, went all out to block the sale of early warning aircraft
(AWACS) and F-15 enhancements to Saudi Arabia. At the same time the
Israeli
defense establishment was rooting for a Saudi victory because Israel
Aircraft Industry was manufacturing some of those F-15 enhancements that
today are part of the Royal Saudi Air Force inventory, complete with
"made
in USA" markings stamped at the factory outside Tel Aviv.
Once diplomatic relations were formalized, trade and other
exchanges took off in all directions. The most important is agriculture;
the ordinary Chinese this visitor has encountered on the streets here are
aware
of Israeli drip-irrigation technology being utilized by their country's
farmers.
China is facing a serious drought, particularly in the north,
where
over 86 million acres are targeted for water-saving irrigation systems.
Israeli agriculture officials, from Minister Rafael Eitan on down, have
visited here frequently.
Israelis are being careful not to offend Chinese sensitivities,
they
insist, explaining, "We are here to share experiences, not to teach."
Israel also is selling technology, equipment and know-how in
areas
of health and medicine, telecommunications, machinery, software,
chemicals,
diamonds, and even automobile parts.
Israel's imports from China are about $100 million a year, and
its
exports are about $80 million and growing steadily. By comparison, some
of
the individual contracts signed last week during Jiang's visit with
American corporations like Boeing, dwarf that sum.
China is the world's most populous country -- at least half a
dozen
cities each have more population than the entire state of Israel -- and
has the world's
most rapidly expanding economy. Its annual foreign trade is in the
neighborhood of $300 billion.
Israel is trying to get a larger slice of that pie and is
succeeding despite intense Arab pressure on China, especially from
Egypt,
to lower the level of relations with the Jewish state. China looks to
the
Arab world for oil to fuel its rapidly expanding industrial base and for
markets for its goods.
Nonetheless, Israeli officials report China continues to be
friendly with Israel, and trade and other relations continue to grow.
The
Chinese media present balanced and daily coverage of the Arab-Israeli
conflict, although historically China has supported the Arab side.
Israel tries to keep a low profile in China but its presence is
apparent. In the three weeks this reporter traveled the country, the
Israeli ballet played to packed audiences, an Israeli guest conductor
led
the Chinese National Symphony Orchestra at the Beijing Concert Hall,
Israeli films were exhibited in an international film festival, an
international sculpture exhibit prominently featured Israeli artists,
and a
group of Israeli generals visited the country.
Some Israelis like to compare what the two countries have in
common
-- famous walls built about 2,000 years ago, a rich cultural history, and
ancient civilizations celebrating the 50th anniversary of the present
state. One could also point out similar tastes in food, chaotic road
conditions and the fact that each scares the hell out of its neighbors.
But the differences are much greater than the similarities. They
sit on opposite ends of the Asian continent geographically as well as
politically. China expects to be a global superpower early in the next
century, and that could once again put it in conflict with Israel's best
and most important ally, the United States.
That is why it is so important to Israel and the United States
that
China abide by the agreements made in Washington last week to curb the
development of weapons of mass destruction and missile technology by
regimes like Iran and Syria. But both Washington and Jerusalem sacrifice
leverage over China in this area when they put such an overwhelming
emphasis on trade with the world's fastest growing economy.
Douglas M. Bloomfield is JWR's Washington correspondent.