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Jewish World Review Feb. 16, 2009 / 22 Shevat 5769 Why Time is on Israel's Side By Max Singer
A Long-Term Perspective on Israel's Security Challenges
This essay describes how Israel can live with earthquakes; that is, the
unpleasant security-diplomatic world it faces. If we put aside hopeless and
dangerous diplomatic options such as the search for a "New Middle East" (the
Oslo process), unilateral disengagement strategies, or taking sovereignty of the
whole Land of Israel now — there is ample room for optimism.
If we take a long-term perspective, of, say, several generations or a century,
Israel's prospects for peace and security as a Jewish and democratic country are
quite good. This is not guaranteed — except perhaps by Divine Providence — and
the result depends partly on how we act and partly on developments over
which we have very little influence. Nevertheless, it is far less an "impossible
dream" than was Herzl's goal of creating a Jewish state in Israel.
The long term trend in the world is clearly toward democracy and peace.
Eastern Europe is going democratic, as are the modern countries of Asia, and
many countries are becoming modern. It is hard to believe that radical Islam
can overcome the rest of the world. Its threat will come to an end as did fascism
and communism. Then the realistic part of Palestinian society will have a
chance to make its voice heard.
What are Israel's security problems? It faces low-level terrorism by suicide
bombers and by rockets and missiles. This requires IDF "dirty work" to keep
Palestinian terror in check. This includes the steady work the IDF and GSS in
Judea and Samaria and the kind of intermittent military project just completed
in Gaza. Israel faces a few dangers: international economic sanctions isolating it
from the world; Iranian (and later perhaps other) nuclear weapons; and internal
fatigue, division, or collapse, particularly if it continues to agonize excessively
over how its security requires it to act towards the Palestinians, and to be
distressed by international condemnation.
Each of these problems will be discussed below in turn. Israel's security
situation is bad enough that it is justified to look for a way out; although it is
not so bad that it cannot brace itself to do what is necessary and go forward,
staying away from desperate attempts which worsen the situation — as Oslo did.
In most ways Israel is far better off than its Jewish predecessors were 20 or 60 or
100 years ago (although the results of Oslo and the momentum of the current
attempt to mobilize jihad are major setbacks).
What puts Israel in the spot it is in? And what changes may happen to the
forces that bear on Israel?
The first critical feature of Israel's condition is the Palestinian public and
political behavior. Briefly put, the Palestinians are determined to destroy Israel,
and no concessions or improvements in our treatment of them will induce them
to give up their goal. Secondly, the Palestinians have a weak and corrupt
political system and leadership. Poor conditions will persist, despite any
amount of assistance they receive, until they learn to develop better political
leadership. In addition to making their lives miserable, their inadequate
political system makes it harder for them to move toward realistic
accommodation with Israel. However, the Palestinians' weak political behavior
makes it easier for Israel to protect itself against their attacks.
By themselves, the Palestinians would not pose too great a problem. They are
made more dangerous because of the support they receive from the Muslim
and especially Arab worlds. For the most part, this support is not based on
Muslim or Arab concern for the wellbeing of Palestinians; it comes mainly from
distaste for non-Muslim control of lands formerly ruled by Muslims in the heart
of the Muslim part of the world, and also from antagonism to the US and the
West. The strength and importance of the Arab and Muslim support for the
Palestinians depends on the political situation in the world. Today it is
somewhat weakened by the Arab fear of Iranian regional power-seeking.
Another critical feature of Israel's situation is Europe's position on the Arab-
Israeli conflict. This is determined primarily by European reactions to Muslim
diplomatic power, to the Muslim internal challenge, and to the jihadi
movement. European positions also are influenced by Europe's relationship
with the US, and perhaps by some degree of anti-Semitism — although this is
not a decisive component. The European perspective is supported by some
Americans and some Israelis.
European opinion and policy about Israel is in no way an independent and
objective evaluation that merits moral or intellectual respect; it is a political
response to European perception of their political realities. They will support
the Palestinians until there is a basic change in their own policy toward
Muslims, jihad, and the US. European funding of Palestinian leaders who prefer
fighting to peace is one of the reasons such leadership stays in power. Also,
since State Department professionals, and elements of the American political
elite often have great respect for what the western Europeans say, the danger of
the US neglecting diplomatic protection for Israel is largely bound with
pressures from western Europe.
The dominant element of the current political situation in the Middle East is the
effort of Islamist jihadists to mobilize Islam for a violent jihad against the US,
Israel, and the West; and the American-led program to defeat this effort and
prevent a "real jihad." At the same time there is also a major conflict between a
coalition led by Iran and resistance to it by the Sunni Arab states, especially
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. If the US wins, Israel's situation will get
better; if the US loses, Israel's situation will get worse. President Obama's
inaugural speech recognized that the US is in such a struggle, speaking of a
"war" against a "network."
Betting on US Success
Of course the US might fail. It is plausible that five or ten years from now the
struggle will still hang in the balance; but it is equally plausible that by then we
will know whether the US can prevail. In any case, it is a mistake for Israel to
assume that the US will fail, or to make policy on the belief that the power of
terrorist-supporting governments (primarily the current governments of Iran,
Saudi Arabia, and Syria) will be greater three years from now than it is today.
As a matter of policy, Israel should expect the US to win and prepare
accordingly.
The US has more economic and military power than any combination of
countries. It has a healthy democracy, which is one of the reasons for its
economic and military power, and for its continued vitality and dynamism. It
has — uniquely for the major Western powers — a growing population, which by
the end of this century will be approximately half that of India and China.
While its political leadership and intellectual elite are showing signs of the
European form of national fatigue, its population still believes in itself and cares
about American freedom. America has never lost, and it is unwise to bet that it
will lose in the future — although it may go the wrong way for a long time,
causing its allies great losses.
The big picture today is that many Arabs and Muslims are influenced by their
hope that the US can be defeated by radical Islam — although that hope is
dampened by the apparent positive outcome in Iraq. There is widespread fear
in Europe that it is too dangerous to resist Muslim encroachment on either
domestic or foreign policy. Nevertheless, Israel has good reason to believe that
this Muslim hope will be dashed. It is probable that over the next 3-10 years the
US and its allies will overcome this challenge. Such a failure of the jihadi
enterprise will substantially change the political environment for the better,
even though the struggle to reconcile Islam to the non-Muslim world will likely
continue for generations.
If during the next three to five years Israel does no more than continue to limit
suicide-bomber damage to the level that it has maintained since Operation
Defensive Shield in 2002; if it wisely employs offensive tactics like the recent
campaign in Gaza to suppress rocket attacks; if it preserves internal stamina
and morale; and if the US weakens the terror-supporting regimes — Israel will
be in a far better position than it is today. The major remaining question relates
to the attempt by the current Iranian regime to acquire nuclear weapons and to
use them to destroy Israel directly or indirectly. This challenge will have to be
overcome.
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Dr. Max Singer, one of Washington's most experienced foreign policy strategists, now makes his home in Jerusalem. He is a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. Comment by clicking here.
© 2009, BESA Perspectives is published through the generosity of the Littauer Foundation
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