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Jewish World Review Feb. 21, 2007 / 3 Adar, 5767 Obama's muddled stance on foreign intervention By Niall Ferguson http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | If politics were a fairy tale, Barack Obama would surely be the next president of the United States. With his melting-pot roots and his molten-hot rhetoric, Obama can seem like a cross between Martin Luther King Jr. and John F. Kennedy — a living opportunity for Democrats to relive the '60s, but without the bitter arguments over civil rights. An Obama victory in 2008 would also exorcise the memory of that other lingering 1960s nightmare: Vietnam. Last month, Obama introduced a bill that would mandate a phased "redeployment of U.S. forces with the goal of removing all combat brigades … from Iraq by March 31, 2008." Obama's antiwar stance is widely seen as his trump card as he goes head to head with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Despite her best efforts, Clinton finds herself in John Kerry territory, having voted for the war but now opposing it. Should Obama win this contest, his supporters reason, he would also be well placed to beat any of the Republican front-runners. John McCain is seen as particularly vulnerable on Iraq. Not only did he support the war, he has also backed President Bush's proposed "surge" of extra troops. Yet conventional wisdom on presidential races at this early stage nearly always turns out to be wrong. Obama's stance on Iraq may yet prove to be his biggest vulnerability. Take a look at Obama's arguments for a speedy U.S. withdrawal. Last month, he asserted that "redeployment remains our best leverage to pressure the Iraqi government to achieve … political settlement between its warring factions." The key is "to give Iraqis their country back" because "no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else's civil war." But Obama's claim that a U.S. withdrawal would somehow "pressure the Sunni and Shia to come to the table and find peace" is a fraud. Withdrawal is much more likely to lead to an escalation of the internecine conflict that is tearing Iraq apart. In a devastating 2006 paper for the Brookings Institution, Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack pointed out that "the only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into a Lebanon- or Bosnia-like maelstrom is 135,000 American troops." In fact, Iraq has already matched the level of violence witnessed in the Lebanese and Bosnian civil wars. And it could get much worse. If the U.S. pulls out, as Obama recommends, Byman and Pollack predict "a humanitarian nightmare" in which we should expect "hundreds of thousands (conceivably even millions) of people to die." Obama's call for rapid withdrawal from Iraq would make some sense if he were an isolationist. But he's not. His memoir-cum-manifesto, "The Audacity of Hope," insists that, out of both self-interest and altruism, the U.S. has no alternative but to "help make the world more secure." Looking back on the Rwandan genocide, he reflects that "an international show of force … might have stopped the slaughter." Obama also has accused the Bush administration of doing too little to stop the murderous policies of the Sudanese government toward the people of Darfur. In an article in December 2005, he went so far as to urge the deployment of "a U.N.- or NATO-led force." Wait a second. Here are two civil wars, each likely to spiral out of control. But in one (Sudan), Obama recommends intervention, while in the other (Iraq), he recommends military withdrawal. Am I missing something? What is particularly objectionable is that Obama appears to have forgotten Colin Powell's so-called Pottery Barn rule, as famously enunciated on the eve of the invasion of Iraq: "You break it, you own it." Far more than in Sudan, the U.S. has a moral responsibility to prevent Iraq from plunging into a bloodbath. When Obama refers to "someone else's civil war," you have to ask how he thinks this civil war got started. Sure, Barack, you didn't vote for the war, but that doesn't absolve you from dealing with the mess Bush has made. In the acknowledgments section of his book, Obama thanks his advisor Samantha Power, whose Pulitzer Prize-winning "A Problem from Hell" was an indictment of Western impotence in the face of successive genocides. I assume Obama has read Power's book. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have grasped its implications. Back to the political fairy tale. It is Jan. 20, 2009, and Obama is being sworn in as the 44th president. Just as he demanded, the last U.S. soldier was airlifted out of Baghdad's Green Zone the previous March. Since then, Iraq and its neighbors have been consumed by sectarian violence worse than anything seen since Rwanda in 1994. The death toll is estimated to be half a million and rising. The United Nations has condemned the Shiite government's murderous expulsion of the Sunnis in southeastern Iraq as genocide. In Washington, the question on everyone's lips is will President Obama call for U.S. military intervention to halt the killing? Now, that would take real audacity. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BUY THE BOOKS Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Niall Ferguson is a professor of history at Harvard University. He is the author of "Empire" (Basic Books, 2003) and "Colossus" (Penguin, 2004). Comment by clicking here. 02/06/07: Britain's American revolution 01/30/07: Independence isn't always beautiful 01/09/07: The new world order looks terribly familiar 12/16/06: The new world order looks terribly familiar 12/13/06: Baker-Hamilton's fine print: Stay in Iraq 12/05/06: The surrealism of Iraq 11/29/06: Some civil wars never end 11/20/06: Will GOP get last laugh? 10/25/06: America's brittle empire 10/17/06: Failing to stop North Korea from going nuclear may have been the last straw for the onetime guardian of world order 10/03/06: Why Churchill opposed torture 09/27/06: Insanity on a Global Scale 09/19/06: The GOP will hang on 09/13/06: Long Live Royal Bloodlines! 09/05/06: Red-state Republicans and blue-faced liberals are starting to agree: Green is the way 08/29/06: What if the London Bombers Succeeded? 08/15/06: Testing the Limits of the U.N.: Who seriously expects Kofi Annan to stop Al Qaeda terror attacks? 08/08/06: The coming tsunami of trash 07/18/06: Forget the '60s and ‘Make Love, Not War.’ Today's world is facing a Summer of Rage 07/11/06: When will China pull the plug on North Korea? 06/20/06: Hedge funds vs. central bankers: Will inflation, deflation or recession win in the coming months? 06/13/06: Britain's economy is just like America's — minus the entrepreneurs and growth 06/06/06: The X-Men have taken over Washington 05/30/06: Quit protesting, profs! 05/23/06: World markets' wild ride: Economic volatility is back with a vengeance 05/16/06: The Cold Wars are coming 05/09/06: Many commentators are missing dangerous political shift 05/02/06: Put some sugar in your tank 04/25/06: Hu and the dog that didn't bark 04/18/06: Should Americans be less optimistic? 04/11/06: Globalization's second death? 04/04/06: So many ‘special’ friends 03/28/06: Let's get it right about what has gone wrong 03/21/06: Congress is trying to give the world a globotomy 03/14/06: Lame ducks can still bite back 03/07/06: A 19th Century critique of a 21st Century president 02/28/06: The crash of civilizations 02/21/06: Not the president, but close 02/14/06: Want historic trouble? Look south 02/07/06: Greenspan advising Britain? It's housing bubbles, deficits and potential meltdowns all over again 01/31/06: Missing the Cold War 01/24/06: It's a sick, Thick World 01/17/06: Tomorrow's world war today 01/03/06: Scotland, it's over, but keep the accents 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 11/22/05: Ghost of Napoleon haunts Tony Blair 11/22/05: Can it happen in Britain too? 11/15/05: Red plus blue equals purple 11/10/05: The fires of disintegration 11/01/05: Triumph of an über-wonk © 2006, Los Angeles Times Distributed by Los Angeles Times Syndicate

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