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Jewish World Review Feb. 24, 2005 / 15 Adar I, 5765 Can Syrian domination of Lebanon be at its end? How the War on Terror is shifting its locale and focus By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
The assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri reminds us
that the Global War on Terror is a global war, and indicates its central
front is shifting from Iraq.
Syria has been occupying Lebanon since 1990, when Syria intervened to quell
a Lebanese civil war it had helped foment.
Syrian puppets currently control the Lebanese government, but the natives
were getting restless. Factions which not so long ago had been shooting at
each other (the Lebanese are divided among Maronite Christians, Sunni
Muslims and Druze, a Shi'ia sect) were, under the leadership of Hariri,
banding together to oppose the occupiers. Elections slated for later this
Spring were expected to go badly for the puppets, and their puppeteers.
Syria views Lebanon as a part of Syria, much as Saddam Hussein coveted
Kuwait as a part of Iraq, and is loathe to let go. "For decades now Syria
has been losing card after card in a steadily weakening strategic hand. It's
domination of Lebanon is one of the last and most vital of them," wrote
David Hirst, Middle East correspondent for the Guardian.
If the purpose of the Hariri assassination was to intimidate the Lebanese,
it isn't working out so well. The turnout for his funeral was huge, and the
crowd was angry.
Russia has been selling Syria advanced missiles, as part of its effort to
revive their old Cold War alliance. Russia is also seeking France's support
to block an expected U.S. resolution in the United Nations imposing
sanctions on Syria if it doesn't withdraw immediately from Lebanon.
France loves to stick its fingers in American eyes. But the Hariri
assassination is a complication. Hariri and French President Jacques Chirac
were good friends.
"Whoever orchestrated Hariri's assassination imagined the explosive event
would produce results in accordance with a master plan," wrote the Miami
Herald. "It is unlikely, however, that the master plan included
strengthening the bonds between the United States and France. But closer
ties between Paris and Washington will undoubtedly result from the Hariri
murder."
"France is working closely with the United States to craft a new UNSC
resolution calling for the Lebanese government to fully investigate the
blast that killed al- Hariri," reported Stratfor, a private intelligence
service.
The result could be a Franco-American push for trade sanctions against Syria
by the UN and the European Union. And given the bad press the UN's been
receiving from the Oil for Food scandal, these sanctions likely would be
enforced. The diplomatic isolation of Syria would be nearly complete.
As the Baathist regime of Bashir Assad feels the walls pressing in, Syria
turned to what may be its one remaining friend in the world. Hitler and
Mussolini had their Pact of Steel. Syria and Iran have formed — renewed,
actually — what might be termed a Pact of Tin, since it is based on mutual
weakness.
Iranian mullahs shake their fists and threaten to rain fiery destruction
down upon anyone who attacks them or Syria. But their bizarre response to
an incident Tuesday near their one confirmed nuclear site indicates their
nerves are raw.
Al- Alam, an Iranian TV station that broadcasts in Arabic, quoted
eyewitnesses as saying a missile had hit the ground about 12 miles from
Deylan. Iranian antiaircraft systems had fired at it, Al-Alam said.
No, said Jahanbakhsh Khanjani, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry, an
airplane flying near Deylan had accidentally dropped a fuel tank, which had
exploded.
No, said Agha Mohammadi, a spokesman for the Supreme National Security
Council, the explosion was "the result of detonating a path for dam-building
operations." Another Iranian official said the explosion was from
road-building operations.
Iran is a dictatorship. The press is controlled. Nothing is reported
without the consent of the mullahs. Something is going on, and they can't
get their story straight. This is behavior more fearful than fearsome.
President Bush, who, liberals say, is maladroit at diplomacy, is pushing
Syria and Iran into a diplomatic corner. But undergirding it has been the
success of American arms in Iraq, and Bush's willingness to use force to
keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
As Frederick the Great said: "diplomacy without force is like music without
instruments." Bush, fortunately, has an orchestra at his disposal.
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© 2005, Jack Kelly | ||||||||||
