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Jewish World Review Feb. 22, 2005 / 13 Adar I, 5765 Can Howard ‘Moses’ Dean take the Dems to the Promised Land? By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
Liberals were thrilled when Howard Dean was elected chairman of the
Democratic National Committee. They think the former Vermont governor will
lead Democrats out of the political wilderness. Conservative Republicans
were thrilled, too. They think he will plunge Democrats further into it.
Only rarely has a party chair had much impact. Dean will have more than
most, because there are few elected Democrats to share the spotlight with
him. And Dean is energetic and a good quote, something few would say about
Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev), the Democratic leader in the Senate, or Nancy
Pelosi (D-Cal), the Democratic leader in the House.
The initial success of Dean's presidential candidacy moved the Democratic
Party to the left, which makes him an odd choice to recapture the center.
Journalists have started to describe Dean as a closet moderate, because he
balanced the state budget. But the governor of Vermont — like the governor
of virtually every other state — is constitutionally obligated to submit
balanced budgets, and Dean typically did so by raising taxes. This makes
him a "moderate" only in the parallel universe most journalists inhabit.
Two days after Dean's inauguration, Curtis Adams, a county commissioner in
Tennessee, switched to the GOP, citing Dean as the reason. "He'll take the
(Democratic) party down all the way," Adams told reporters.
A day after that, the senior black Democrat in the House of Representatives
joined Republicans in criticizing Dean for making a racially insensitive
remark.
While meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, Dean said: "You think the
Republicans could get this many people of color in a single room? Only if
they had the hotel staff in here."
This drew predictable howls of outrage from Maryland Lt Gov. Michael Steele,
former Rep. J.C. Watts and other prominent black Republicans. But they were
joined by Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), who said Dean should apologize if he
offended anybody by suggesting blacks usually work as servants.
Dean was not exactly a favorite of African-Americans when he ran for
president, and his joke isn't playing well with blacks who were miffed by
the vituperative opposition of prominent Democrats to the nomination of
Condoleeza Rice to be secretary of state.
Another bone of contention is Social Security reform, which (Democrat
friendly) pollster John Zogby said is popular with minorities.
"The Democrats are very busy turning 48 percent of the vote into free fall,
and that's not easy to do," Zogby said.
"Free fall" sounds like hyperbole to me. As long as greed, stupidity and
cowardice remain a part of the human condition, there will be a constituency
for Democrats. But by lurching left under a lily white limousine liberal
with diarrhea of the mouth, the Democrats seem set on a course more likely
to diminish than to expand their share of the vote in 2006 and beyond.
Republican prospects in 2006 and beyond will be shaped primarily by how
Americans view the job President Bush is doing. If the economy is strong
and the war on terror is going well, GOP prospects will be bright. If not,
then the Democrats — for all their missteps — will be competitive.
But the GOP future also will be shaped by political choices Republicans
make. Democrats are competitive in national elections primarily because of
the stranglehold they have on the black vote. If Republicans could get 15
percent of the black vote, Democrats could never again win the presidency.
If Republicans could get 20 percent of the black vote, the very existence of
the Democratic Party would be in doubt.
According to Washington gossip, President Bush has begun referring to Condi
Rice in private as "44," as in the 44th president. Bush probably is joking,
but it would be a good thing for the GOP if he isn't. The best way to blunt
a Hillary Clinton candidacy would be for the Republicans to nominate a woman
of their own. Could Condi Rice get one black vote in six? Almost
certainly. One black vote in five? Perhaps.
Movement already is underway. The Columbus Dispatch reported Feb. 20 that
Walter Cates, one of the most prominent black Democrats in that Ohio city,
has switched to the GOP. With a Condi Rice candidacy, what is now a trickle
could become a river, if not a flood.
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© 2005, Jack Kelly | ||||||||||
