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Jewish World Review Feb. 24, 2005 / 15 Adar I, 5765 Social Security reform may pass By Tony Blankley
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com |
There is a high likelihood that Social Security reform will be
passed within a year. I write this although most congressmen I have spoken
with — both Republican and Democratic — currently don't expect it. In
fact, many members doubt it will even come to a vote. They are certainly
hoping it won't. But then congressmen and senators are sometimes nearly the
last to know how they are actually going to vote.
When I was Speaker Newt Gingrich's press secretary in the 1990s,
it was often the case that only weeks, days and sometimes even hours or
minutes before an important vote, less than half the members expressed
support for the legislation that ultimately passed. While inducements and
arm twisting inevitably played its part in some last minutes decisions (and
surely will on Social Security this time), the larger reason for the
unreliability of early congressional opinion is that until close to the time
of voting, the members are not fully aware of all the decision criteria they
will face.
Depending on which side has done a better job of public
persuasion, public opinion may change nationally or in their districts.
There may be unexpected changes in the lineup of interest groups in support
of a bill. Certain interest groups will be more or less effective in making
their cases. This year, the president's outside supporters may spend up to
$200 million in support of passage. Karl Rove's multi-million-person
election year volunteer machinery will be rolled out to do battle. The
burden of those efforts have not yet begun to have their effects.
Right now, voting no on Social Security looks like the safer
vote. But if President Bush can create a sense of urgency in the public (and
particularly in the districts of hesitant members), then voting no next fall
may be seen as carrying its own political risks.
Often congressmen and senators assume certain provisions of a
bill will be popular or unpopular, and express their early support or
opposition accordingly. But they may find out their early assumptions were
wrong. This could well be the case on Social Security. Currently there are
about two dozen Republican House members who have told their leadership that
voting for Social Security changes could be political death for them.
Another about 40 members probably share that fear. If they are justified in
their fears, their leadership will not try to force them to vote yes, in
which case Social Security will not pass the House. After all, the
Republican House leadership doesn't want to risk losing its majority status
in the next congress.
But careful polling may well show these members that their fear
is misplaced. Politicians rely on their political judgment built up over a
lifetime in politics. This instinct is usually pretty accurate for
politicians midway through a successful electoral career. But their instinct
on Social Security may well be off because of the sharp difference in public
attitudes based on the age of the voters.
The electorate is, of course, constantly changing. Old people
die, young people come of age and start voting. We don't notice this gradual
change, and usually it doesn't matter that much. But on the issue of Social
Security, age is a defining measure of attitude. The Roosevelt-era voters,
who hold Social Security untouchable, are dying off very quickly now, while
the post-boomer generation, which discounts its reliability, is coming into
its high voting rate period of life. The boomers are split.
Most congressmen over the age of 40 feel in their bones that
touching Social Security is political death. But their bones may be
deceiving them. When the Republican Party starts polling the specific
districts of fearful members, they may well find out that properly designed,
a Social Security bill may not be political death at all — given the
changing demographics. The party has several months to take these soundings,
as part of a confidence-building effort for the members who will be called
on to vote in the fall or winter.
Moreover, only after months of careful polling, listening and
discussion with various interest groups and political factions, will
President Bush settle on the various pieces of his Social Security bill most
likely to gain majority support in Congress. Currently, members of Congress
are imagining a fright night of all the most unpopular provisions.
The other element not currently being fully considered is
President Bush's willfulness, persistence and leadership. Particularly if
Iraq and foreign policy are seen to be going better by the fall, President
Bush will carry a bigger megaphone in persuading the public and a bigger
stick to persuade the politicians.
Thus, it is highly relevant to the politics of Social Security
that Sen. Hillary Clinton started talking positively about events in Iraq
last week. As a particularly acute bellwether of political expediency,
Senator Clinton's positive rhetorical shift on Iraq suggests good news for
President Bush. With the economy predicted to continue in healthy 3.5
percent growth for the year, and with things going the president's way
abroad, he could well go into the autumn legislating season with 55-58
percent job approval.
Such a president — armed with a carefully designed bill that
finesses the hardest bits of the reform, and laying the charge of
obstruction and dereliction of duty at the doorstep of naysaying congressmen
of both parties — is quite likely to get his way on Social Security reform,
which almost all members, despite what they are saying publicly, know is in
desperate need of rectification. And, at the margin, that shriveled but not
yet fully dead sense of public duty, may move the odd vote or two.
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