In Iowa, Democrats said they thought Hillary Clinton was more likely to win the White House, but more of them voted for Barack Obama.
In New Hampshire, the exact opposite occurred — Democrats said Mr. Obama was more likely to prevail, but Mrs. Clinton won the primary.
Similar ambivalence is evident nationally. In post-New Hampshire polls, Mrs. Clinton has an advantage on electability. But that margin is shrinking, and surveys show that Mr. Obama fares better head-to-head against some Republicans.
After President Bush's two terms, Democrats are enthusiastic about their chances in November. Many say they could back Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama. But they're conflicted for a good reason — it's hard to say who would be the stronger nominee.
The clues are contradictory. Two new polls found that Democrats believe Mrs. Clinton is more electable than Mr. Obama, by 7 points in an ABC News -Washington Post poll and 12 points in a CBS News-New York Times survey.
But recent polls give a mixed picture of how either top Democrat would do against specific Republicans.
In a CNN poll, both lead Sen. John McCain by statistically insignificant margins, Mrs. Clinton by 2 points and Mr. Obama by 1. Both beat Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani by double digits, although Mr. Obama's margins are slightly larger.
In a USA Today poll, both lose narrowly to Mr. McCain, though Mr. Obama loses by a bit more. Both beat Mr. Huckabee.
And a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows Mrs. Clinton narrowly losing to Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama ahead of the Arizona senator.
These numbers, of course, reflect only current attitudes. A presidential campaign is long and intense, tests the candidates and almost certainly will change many opinions.
Mrs. Clinton's biggest plus remains the belief that she has the experience to perform as president from the outset, an impression her campaign has stressed. A second, reinforcing attribute is that voters see her as the strong leader. Those traits would allow her to match up strongly with potential GOP rivals, like Mr. McCain.
She also seems most likely to weather the intense pressure of this campaign, especially in the debates, where she has mostly performed well.
Her biggest downside is that she's seen as polarizing. She appeals less to independents than Mr. Obama, so if she were to win the general election, she might do so only narrowly. That could make it harder to reach out to Republicans on issues, despite her efforts to do so in the Senate. That concerns those voters who desperately want to end the bitter partisanship of recent years.
Judging from their recent Obama endorsements, some southern and western Democratic leaders fear that her polarizing image would hurt the ticket.
One unanswerable question is whether more voters would recoil from electing a woman than would embrace it. Mrs. Clinton's strategists believe she would attract those moderate and independent women who don't always vote Democratic.
Mr. Obama's biggest asset is that he epitomizes change at a time when most voters want it. He inspires voters more than Mrs. Clinton and has created a degree of excitement among young voters not seen in some time.
His two main potential handicaps are inexperience and race.
Inexperience has not posed a problem in the early Democratic tests. But a potential warning sign lies in the fact that only a modest 53-41 majority of Democrats in the new ABC News-Washington Post poll say he has the experience needed to be an effective president.
A lot will depend on how he matches up with a GOP rival. If Republicans nominate Mr. McCain, will a 46-year-old senator look young and vigorous next to a 71-year-old former Vietnam POW? Or will the contrast leave him looking too inexperienced?
Though Mr. Obama is no younger than Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy or Bill Clinton when they became president, he has less experience in public office.
As for his race, most Americans polled say it's no handicap. But minority candidates have had trouble attracting enough white votes to win. And Mr. Obama remains less well known than Mrs. Clinton, meaning more potential for damaging surprises.
African-Americans already vote solidly Democratic. Mr. Obama's supporters believe he could increase turnout and put some Southern states into play.
Surveys show he has more appeal than Mrs. Clinton to Republicans and independents, but only time will tell whether that will translate into votes, once voters see that his positions are similar to hers.
For some time, polls have shown that voters favor electing a generic Democrat. But a lot will happen to affect that between now and Nov. 4, such as this week's nasty Clinton-Obama flap over race.
The bottom line: It's too early to tell which is more likely to win.
