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Jewish World Review Jan. 30, 2007 / 11 Shevat, 5767 Independence isn't always beautiful By Niall Ferguson http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | I find myself confronted with a "trilemma" — a three-horned dilemma. If, as seems likely, Scottish voters choose to mark the tercentenary of the Act of Union by voting the Scottish National Party into power in Edinburgh, I would be a significant step closer to having to choose between British and Scottish citizenship. If, however, my application for permanent residency in the United States is successful, I would be a significant step closer toward American citizenship. This is more than merely a personal identity crisis. All over the world, people are facing similar choices. Millions are strongly attracted to the idea of having their "own" little country. But other millions are just as attracted to the idea of emigrating to someone else's big country. Can they all be right? Let us begin in Scotland. Three hundred years ago, the land of my birth gave up its own Parliament — hence its legislative sovereignty — under the terms of the Act of Union with England. According to the Scottish Nationalists, the time has come to tear that law up and to follow the examples of Australia, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro, New Zealand and Norway — places where, in the words of the SNP website, "independence has worked." Granted, it is not wholly implausible to imagine an independent Scotland as Finland West or New Zealand North. But there are plenty of countries with populations of around 5 million that have made rather less of a success of independence. Sierra Leone springs to mind. As do Eritrea and Turkmenistan. Small isn't always beautiful. The question therefore arises: When does it make sense for a people to go it alone? The last century has seen a remarkable global experiment in what used to be called "self-determination," so we have plenty of evidence to go on. Back in 1913, about 82% of the world's population lived in 14 empires. Nation-states were the exception, not the rule. But two world wars, a depression and a spate of revolutions shattered the old imperial order, ushering in an era of almost incessant political fragmentation. In 1946, there were 74 sovereign states in the world. By 1995, there were 192. Today, Scotland is far from the only place bidding to follow East Timor and Montenegro, the newest members of the United Nations. The majority of the population of the Serbian province of Kosovo, which is less than half the size of Scotland, is eager to secede from Belgrade. If civil war leads to partition in Iraq, that country's 26 million people may have to choose between Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite statelets. From a strictly economic point of view, the size of a country does not seem to matter much. Statistically, there's no relationship worth talking about between total population and per-capita income. So the arguments against independence come down to two interrelated things: power and culture. Though the small and smart can beat the big and blundering on occasion, in general there are economies of scale when it comes to warfare. There are also economies of scale when it comes to communication. Most of humanity's greatest achievements, from Ming China to 20th century America, have come where large numbers of people have been able to exchange ideas in a common language. If the Scots all spoke Gaelic, the argument for independence would be more compelling. The reality is that they mostly watch English TV and read English newspapers. If the British Isles were menaced by a foreign invader, the argument for independence would collapse. There's safety in numbers. This sheds light on the peculiar character of our age. Thanks to air transportation and electronic communications, the spread of language has become disconnected from the realm of politics. English now serves as a global lingua franca without needing the old agencies of conquest and colonization. At the same time, the decline of expansionist empires has reduced the hazards of being a small country. Might that change in the future? There are 21 countries with populations greater than 60 million. Of the remaining 171 countries, only 16 have more than 30 million people and only 22 more than 15 million. The rest are states that would struggle to survive in a world where war was more commonplace and communication more expensive. Imagine, then, a dangerous world, in which most of the world's population chose, or were compelled, to inhabit empires. China's, India's and Russia's already exist. Would a new Persian empire arise in the Middle East? Or a restored Sunni caliphate? Would the dream of Simon Bolivar belatedly be realized in Latin America? Would the Scots and the English become citizens of a United States of Europe? Or, as Winston Churchill insisted, would we stick in time of crisis to the tested union of the English-speaking peoples? For now, my "trilemma" will endure: Do I stick with the dear old Disunited Kingdom, go west to the Big Country that is the U.S. or head home to the People's Republic of Caledonia? History is telling me that size isn't everything. But it's not nothing either. Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in in the media and Washington consider "must-reading". Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here. BUY THE BOOKS Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Click HERE to purchase it at a discount. (Sales help fund JWR.). Niall Ferguson is a professor of history at Harvard University. He is the author of "Empire" (Basic Books, 2003) and "Colossus" (Penguin, 2004). Comment by clicking here. 01/09/07: The new world order looks terribly familiar 12/16/06: The new world order looks terribly familiar 12/13/06: Baker-Hamilton's fine print: Stay in Iraq 12/05/06: The surrealism of Iraq 11/29/06: Some civil wars never end 11/20/06: Will GOP get last laugh? 10/25/06: America's brittle empire 10/17/06: Failing to stop North Korea from going nuclear may have been the last straw for the onetime guardian of world order 10/03/06: Why Churchill opposed torture 09/27/06: Insanity on a Global Scale 09/19/06: The GOP will hang on 09/13/06: Long Live Royal Bloodlines! 09/05/06: Red-state Republicans and blue-faced liberals are starting to agree: Green is the way 08/29/06: What if the London Bombers Succeeded? 08/15/06: Testing the Limits of the U.N.: Who seriously expects Kofi Annan to stop Al Qaeda terror attacks? 08/08/06: The coming tsunami of trash 07/18/06: Forget the '60s and ‘Make Love, Not War.’ Today's world is facing a Summer of Rage 07/11/06: When will China pull the plug on North Korea? 06/20/06: Hedge funds vs. central bankers: Will inflation, deflation or recession win in the coming months? 06/13/06: Britain's economy is just like America's — minus the entrepreneurs and growth 06/06/06: The X-Men have taken over Washington 05/30/06: Quit protesting, profs! 05/23/06: World markets' wild ride: Economic volatility is back with a vengeance 05/16/06: The Cold Wars are coming 05/09/06: Many commentators are missing dangerous political shift 05/02/06: Put some sugar in your tank 04/25/06: Hu and the dog that didn't bark 04/18/06: Should Americans be less optimistic? 04/11/06: Globalization's second death? 04/04/06: So many ‘special’ friends 03/28/06: Let's get it right about what has gone wrong 03/21/06: Congress is trying to give the world a globotomy 03/14/06: Lame ducks can still bite back 03/07/06: A 19th Century critique of a 21st Century president 02/28/06: The crash of civilizations 02/21/06: Not the president, but close 02/14/06: Want historic trouble? Look south 02/07/06: Greenspan advising Britain? It's housing bubbles, deficits and potential meltdowns all over again 01/31/06: Missing the Cold War 01/24/06: It's a sick, Thick World 01/17/06: Tomorrow's world war today 01/03/06: Scotland, it's over, but keep the accents 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 12/20/05: History, democracy and Iraq 11/22/05: Ghost of Napoleon haunts Tony Blair 11/22/05: Can it happen in Britain too? 11/15/05: Red plus blue equals purple 11/10/05: The fires of disintegration 11/01/05: Triumph of an über-wonk © 2006, Los Angeles Times Distributed by Los Angeles Times Syndicate

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