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| A new alliance brightens the Middle Eastern outlook 
          	
By Amos Perlmutter
 
The Islamic fundamentalist revolution in the Middle East is finally
 being confronted with a most serious political and military challenge
 in the form of a Turkish-Israeli-American strategic alliance that held
 successful joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean on Jan. 7.
 
 The Islamic fundamentalist movement that challenged Arab nationalist
 ideology -- and in fact overtook its primacy among the Egyptian and other
 Arab masses -- is now confronting a formidable coalition. The age of
 Nasserism, the height of pan-Arabist nationalist ideology that has been
 surpassed by the age of ayatollahs, mullahs and religious
 fundamentalists from Iran to Morocco, is now on the defensive.
 
 The Arab nationalists, whose ideology has decayed, have not established
 any form of political and military alliance against the fundamentalists.
 Instead, it took three democratic and secular republics -- Turkey, Israel and
 the United States -- to raise the ante and warn the fundamentalists and
 their terrorist allies that their offensive is now being checked.
 
 Obviously, the task will not be easy. Corrupt dictatorial and
 authoritarian Arab regimes created the conditions for the rise of mass
 discontent and anger and a favorable arena for fundamentalist political
 action.
 
 It is true that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism is linked to the
 failure of Arab nationalist regimes to successfully establish modern
 states and societies. The secular coalition represents the first serious
 challenge to the fundamentalists. If the latter, through
 electoral or violent means, overthrow regimes in Egypt, Morocco or
 Jordan, the Israel-Turkish-American alliance supported by Jordan will
 meet this challenge.
 
 This alliance, contrary to the declarations of Egyptian politicians, military leaders,
 journalistic pundits and intellectual voyeurs, is not set against the
 Arab states or against Islam any more than American-Saudi or
 American-Egyptian military maneuvers represent a challenge to the State
 of Israel. The alliance must be understood in the context of the
 fundamentalist challenge and terrorism. It represents an
 effort on the part of a powerful hegemonic state, the United
 States, and the states with the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, Israel and
 Turkey, to guarantee the stability and persistence of secularism in
 Turkey, the great dream and achievement of its secular founding father,
 Kemal Ataturk.
 
 As reported in a recent New York Times article, the
 Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises have met condemnations, and "not
 surprisingly, the loudest came from Syria." It is true that the
 dictatorial regime of Syria, a secular one, is strategically threatened
 by an Israeli-Turkish alliance, and for good reasons. Syria is
 responsible for sustaining and supporting Lebanon's Hezbollah, which
 continues to terrorize Israel. Syria and Turkey also have serious disputes over water resources.
 
 Isolating Syrian President Hafez Assad may prove wise. The presence of the commander of
 the Jordanian navy as an observer at the naval exercises demonstrates that Jordan, the state most
 vulnerable to Islamic and Palestinian revolutionaries, is distancing
 itself from Assad as well.
 
 The Israeli-Turkish-American naval exercises are partially redeeming the
 Clinton administration from its failure to seriously challenge Saddam
 Hussein. In this respect, the exercises are of great strategic
 importance. They demonstrate to the Arabs of the Gulf the American
 determination to stay in the area and to the Turkish and Israeli secular
 and democratic regimes that the United States stands firm behind them.
 From the Turkish point of view, this is also an indirect American
 challenge to the European Union, which shamelessly refused to offer
 Turkey a membership in the EU, while membership was offered to
 undemocratic Bulgaria and Romania, and to other as yet untested new
 regimes in Eastern Europe. Turkey has been a most loyal American and
 NATO ally, and is unfortunately being short-changed. The EU should
 reverse its tactically foolish policy.
 
 It is a matter of fact and history that Arab alliance since 1945 have
 ignominiously failed. See the case of the Arab League's failure to unite
 in its aim to destroy Israel; the collapse of the Nasserite United Arab
 Republic of the late '50s and early '60s; and the failure of the Gulf
 War Arab coalition to meet the most recent Iraqi challenge. History has
 proven the unreliability of Arab alliances, even when it comes to their
 most precious and holy Palestinian cause, Arab unity, and national
 cooperation.
 
 In contradistinction, the carefully and long-prepared Israel-Turkish
 alliance is maturing successfully, mainly because the United States
 stands behind it. King Hussein of Jordan, a wise statesman, has joined
 the alliance as an observer, thus guaranteeing the defense of his
 country against present and future Syrian and Iraqi aggression.
 
 It is hoped that the leadership of Egypt will find this
 alliance to be in its interest. It is secular, composed of friendly states, and above all represents a powerful combination:
 the United States, Turkey and Israel. It is hoped the Egyptian
 columnists, propagandists and political and military elites realize this
 alliance is not designed against Egypt or to deprive Egypt of its
 significant role as the leading Arab country. On the contrary, the
 alliance should be welcomed by and hopefully joined by Egypt in the near
 future. After all, the real enemies of the Mubarak regime and of secular
 Egypt are the fundamentalists and nobody else.
 
 Certain Egyptian leaders should forgo the paranoid belief that everything
 Israel does is meant to weaken Egypt, lest they miss an important opportunity to enhance Egyptian stability and security. 
 1/1/98: Saddam's predictable defiance 
 JWR contributor Amos Perlmutter is a professor of political science and sociology at American University and the editor of the Journal of Strategic Studies. 
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